1Q, 2024 Commentary: The Fed’s Aim: A New Bull’s Eye
Equity markets concluded the first three months of 2024 on a strong note as the S&P 500 achieved new all-time highs. The small cap Russell 2000 ended March at its highest level since January 2022.
February 2024 Commentary: Navigating the Bull
Equity market returns were robust in February. U.S. small cap stocks led the rally, up 5.7%, and the S&P 500 set new highs, marking a rare occurrence of gains in 16 of the past 18 weeks, something not achieved in more than 50 years.
January 2024 Commentary: The Size Divide
The U.S. economy grew by an annualized 3.3% in Q4 2023, beating expectations. Consumer confidence rose significantly due to lower inflation expectations and a robust labor market, despite some signs of cooling.
4Q, 2023 Commentary: Balancing Act
Despite early 2023’s recession fears and banking crisis, the market rallied with U.S. large cap stocks up 26.3% and U.S. intermediate-term bonds up 5.5%, buoyed by moderating inflation.
November 2023 Commentary: Retail Therapy
Underneath strong consumer spending levels lies growing credit reliance, hinting at an unsustainable trend that could foretell increased economic and market volatility.
October 2023 Commentary: ‘G’ is for Government
The U.S. government added $532 billion in debt outstanding in October, while facing future budget strains due to a record (and growing) $659 billion in interest outlays, signaling additional challenges for government spending productivity and overall fiscal health.
3Q 2023 Commentary: Drained
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which ended the quarter down 3.2%, is down 15% over the past three years in the largest three-year decline in history.
August 2023 Commentary: Goodbye, August
The S&P 500 experienced a 1.6% decline in August but remains 18.7% higher on the year, while the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is up a paltry 1.4% for the year to date.
July 2023 Commentary: Hot Streak
Markets continued their hot streak in July, and the S&P 500 posted its fifth consecutive month of positive returns, ending the month up 3.2%.
2Q 2023 Commentary: The Running of the Bulls (and Bears)
The first half of 2023 has been anything but ordinary—from a banking crisis in March and a near-miss with a U.S. debt default to the flurry of excitement in Artificial Intelligence and anything related to it.
May 2023 Commentary: Bulls, Bears, and Bots
In late May, an agreement was made to suspend the debt ceiling until January 1, 2025. As part of the agreement, student loan payments will resume within the coming months, barring a Supreme Court ruling in favor of Biden’s forgiveness plan.
April 2023 Commentary: A Series of Unfortunate Events
As the debt ceiling debate intensifies, Congress remains at an impasse and has largely ignored warnings from Treasury Secretary Yellen, who now estimates that the U.S. will run out of funds to pay bills by June 1.
1Q 2023 Commentary: Tick Tock
Despite a barrage of economic and policy news, the quarter will be remembered most for the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
February 2023 Commentary: The Money Illusion
Retail sales rebounded in January, following two consecutive months of declines. However, the impact of ongoing elevated inflation on consumers’ purchasing power remains unclear, as inflation creates an illusion of strength that is not carried through to inflation-adjusted data.
January 2023 Commentary: Faith, Trust and Pixie Dust
It’s been a great start to the year for markets; both stocks and bonds ended January with decidedly positive returns. The NASDAQ Composite enjoyed its best January since 2001, ending the month up 10.7%.
4Q 2022 Commentary: Money Like Water
As inflation showed signs of slowing in the fourth quarter, both stocks and bonds recovered some of their losses from previous quarters, and most assets ended the quarter with positive returns.
November 2022 Commentary: A Fork in the Road
Two of the most powerful economies in the world, the U.S. and China, are both facing critical decisions, and their choices will create ripple effects for global economic growth.
October 2022 Commentary: De-FAANGed
The reversal of FAANG stocks’ long-term dominance has loomed large over markets this year.
3Q 2022 Commentary: Whac-A-Mole
In the first half of the quarter, stocks and bonds rallied on the hopes of a Fed policy pivot, but a sharp reversal in the second half brought new highs for bond yields and new lows in stocks for the year.
August 2022 Commentary: Stalemate
Terrible global conflict continues with Ukraine resolutely defending itself against Russia, Russia dealing with severe sanctions, and western Europe bracing for a winter marked by significantly limited gas and fuel supply, traditionally secured from Russia.
July 2022 Commentary: Domino Effect
Though second-quarter S&P 500 earnings were up overall, earnings are expected to decline 3.7% relative to the same quarter last year
2Q 2022 Commentary: When Doves Cry
The past six months have been the worst start to a year for a traditional “60/40” portfolio since 1932 when the U.S. economy was in the Great Depression
May 2022 Commentary: Goldilocks and the Two Bearish Scenarios
Equity markets remained volatile in May as a late-month rally erased losses, pushing most indexes to slight gains for the month
April 2022 Commentary: The Tipping Point
Global markets have been roiled by a succession of blows in April – higher bond yields, lingering post-pandemic supply chain imbalances, a commodity price shock exaggerated by the war in Ukraine, and lockdowns across most major cities in China
1Q 2022 Commentary: A Nickel for Your Thoughts
For the second time in two years, the global economy was thrust into a crisis, first from a pandemic and then from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
January 2022 Commentary: Behind the Curve
Volatility rose in January, and stocks dipped into correction territory as stubbornly high inflation raised the prospects for an accelerated Fed hiking cycle
Q4 2021 Commentary: Candyland
Equity markets delivered positive returns in the final quarter while fixed income returns were flat.
November 2021 Commentary: Coming to Grips with Persistent Inflation
Following its best month of the year, the S&P 500 Index cooled off in November, falling 0.7%.
October 2021 Commentary: Heating Up
The S&P 500 Index had its best month of the year in October, rising 7% and bouncing back from September’s 4.7% loss, its worst month since March 2020.
3Q 2021 Commentary: Bond Vigilantes
Markets delivered bland returns during the third quarter—a welcome development considering the stellar returns achieved earlier in the year.
August 2021 Commentary: Under the Surface
The U.S. stock market rallied for the seventh consecutive month in August, adding to an unusually impressive – and calm – year for risky assets.
July 2021 Commentary: Crypto, Corporate Earnings, and Covid
During July, fears of impending inflation declined, sparking a positive response in yield-sensitive assets and mixed results in other markets.
2Q 2021 Commentary: Taking Stock
Most asset prices rose during the quarter amidst continued economic reopening and extraordinary levels of policy accommodation.
May 2021 Commentary: Help Wanted
Real assets were the top performers for the month of May due to the continued reopening of the U.S. economy and historic levels of stimulus from Washington
April 2021 Commentary: Happy Anniversary, Inflation!
All asset classes rose for the month, and most have generated year-to-date returns that would be considered attractive for an entire year.
1Q 2021 Commentary: Throw the Confetti
At the end of the quarter, investors enjoyed the robust returns of riskier asset classes and policymakers’ continued commitment to extraordinary accommodation.
