November 2023 Commentary: Retail Therapy

Underneath strong consumer spending levels lies growing credit reliance, hinting at an unsustainable trend that could foretell increased economic and market volatility.

October 2023 Commentary: ‘G’ is for Government

The U.S. government added $532 billion in debt outstanding in October, while facing future budget strains due to a record (and growing) $659 billion in interest outlays, signaling additional challenges for government spending productivity and overall fiscal health.

3Q 2023 Commentary: Drained

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which ended the quarter down 3.2%, is down 15% over the past three years in the largest three-year decline in history.

August 2023 Commentary: Goodbye, August

The S&P 500 experienced a 1.6% decline in August but remains 18.7% higher on the year, while the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is up a paltry 1.4% for the year to date.

July 2023 Commentary: Hot Streak

Markets continued their hot streak in July, and the S&P 500 posted its fifth consecutive month of positive returns, ending the month up 3.2%.

May 2023 Commentary: Bulls, Bears, and Bots

In late May, an agreement was made to suspend the debt ceiling until January 1, 2025. As part of the agreement, student loan payments will resume within the coming months, barring a Supreme Court ruling in favor of Biden’s forgiveness plan.

April 2023 Commentary: A Series of Unfortunate Events

As the debt ceiling debate intensifies, Congress remains at an impasse and has largely ignored warnings from Treasury Secretary Yellen, who now estimates that the U.S. will run out of funds to pay bills by June 1.

1Q 2023 Commentary: Tick Tock

Despite a barrage of economic and policy news, the quarter will be remembered most for the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

February 2023 Commentary: The Money Illusion

Retail sales rebounded in January, following two consecutive months of declines. However, the impact of ongoing elevated inflation on consumers’ purchasing power remains unclear, as inflation creates an illusion of strength that is not carried through to inflation-adjusted data.

4Q 2022 Commentary: Money Like Water

As inflation showed signs of slowing in the fourth quarter, both stocks and bonds recovered some of their losses from previous quarters, and most assets ended the quarter with positive returns.

November 2022 Commentary: A Fork in the Road

Two of the most powerful economies in the world, the U.S. and China, are both facing critical decisions, and their choices will create ripple effects for global economic growth.

3Q 2022 Commentary: Whac-A-Mole

In the first half of the quarter, stocks and bonds rallied on the hopes of a Fed policy pivot, but a sharp reversal in the second half brought new highs for bond yields and new lows in stocks for the year.

August 2022 Commentary: Stalemate

Terrible global conflict continues with Ukraine resolutely defending itself against Russia, Russia dealing with severe sanctions, and western Europe bracing for a winter marked by significantly limited gas and fuel supply, traditionally secured from Russia.

2Q 2022 Commentary: When Doves Cry

The past six months have been the worst start to a year for a traditional “60/40” portfolio since 1932 when the U.S. economy was in the Great Depression

April 2022 Commentary: The Tipping Point

Global markets have been roiled by a succession of blows in April – higher bond yields, lingering post-pandemic supply chain imbalances, a commodity price shock exaggerated by the war in Ukraine, and lockdowns across most major cities in China

October 2021 Commentary: Heating Up

The S&P 500 Index had its best month of the year in October, rising 7% and bouncing back from September’s 4.7% loss, its worst month since March 2020.

3Q 2021 Commentary: Bond Vigilantes

Markets delivered bland returns during the third quarter—a welcome development considering the stellar returns achieved earlier in the year.

2Q 2021 Commentary: Taking Stock

Most asset prices rose during the quarter amidst continued economic reopening and extraordinary levels of policy accommodation.

May 2021 Commentary: Help Wanted

Real assets were the top performers for the month of May due to the continued reopening of the U.S. economy and historic levels of stimulus from Washington

1Q 2021 Commentary: Throw the Confetti

At the end of the quarter, investors enjoyed the robust returns of riskier asset classes and policymakers’ continued commitment to extraordinary accommodation.