August 2022 Commentary: Stalemate

September 10, 2022August 2022 Commentary: Stalemate

  • Terrible global conflict continues with Ukraine resolutely defending itself against Russia, Russia dealing with severe sanctions, and western Europe bracing for a winter marked by significantly limited gas and fuel supply, traditionally secured from Russia.
  • To keep its economy afloat despite a tide of international sanctions, Russia has formed strategic alliances with China, as well as Saudi Arabia, to sustain its powerful energy sector—much to the frustration of the U.S. government.
  • To combat OPEC+ production cuts and tame U.S. inflation, Biden has tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to release nearly 200 million barrels of the SPR this year, representing 31% of its total supply.
  • China’s economy—the world’s second largest—has slowed precipitously due to the CCP’s “zero-COVID” policies, and many worry about a possible collapse of the colossal Chinese real estate market.
  • We continue to position portfolios for a range of possible outcomes, but still believe it is premature to signal the all-clear and aggressively deploy capital into risky assets.
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