SUMMARY
- The July Rally refers to the historically strong performance of U.S. large cap stocks in the month of July. Since 1920, July has been a top-performing month, and since 2010, there have only been two occurrences where July has not produced positive returns (in 2011, and 2014). On average, U.S. large cap stocks post returns of approximately 3.2% over July.
- The July Rally once again seems to have held true for this year, with the S&P 500 on track to end the month up around 3.0%. The strength of this July has come from promising signs of U.S. inflation meaningfully cooling (3.0% year-over-year in June) and better-than-expected earnings reports from several companies. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index also showed continued consumer optimism, as it continued to tick higher (to 71.6, the highest reading since December 2021) following the stock market rally.
- The second half of the year has historically produced better returns than the first half. While we’ve seen strong U.S. large-cap stock performance year-to-date, it remains to be seen whether the S&P 500 can continue this momentum for the rest of the year.
DISCLOSURES
The material shown is for informational purposes only. Any opinions expressed are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice. This report may include estimates, projections or other forward-looking statements; however, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. As a practical matter, no entity is able to accurately and consistently predict future market activities. Additionally, please be aware that past performance is not a guide to the future performance of any investment, and that the performance results and historical information provided displayed herein may have been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. Therefore, it should not be inferred that these results are indicative of the future performance of any strategy, index, fund, manager or group of managers. The graphs and tables making up this report have been based on unaudited, third-party data and performance information provided to us by one or more commercial databases. While we believe this information to be reliable, SpringTide Partners bears no responsibility whatsoever for any errors or omissions.
Index benchmarks contained in this report are provided so that performance can be compared with the performance of well-known and widely recognized indices. Index results assume the re-investment of all dividends and interest. The information provided is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security, investment, or portfolio allocation. This presentation is not meant as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s accounts should or would be handled, as appropriate investment decisions depend upon the client’s specific investment objectives.
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