COTW: Revisions On Revisions

September 5, 2025COTW: Revisions On Revisions

SUMMARY
  • The U.S. August 2025 payroll report showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 22,000 jobs added, far below the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, signaling a cooling labor market.
  • Job gains were concentrated mainly in the healthcare sector (+31,000) and social assistance (+16,000), while losses were recorded in federal government jobs (down 15,000), manufacturing (-12,000), mining, and oil and gas extraction.
  • July’s payroll figures were revised slightly upward to 79,000 from 73,000 jobs added, but June’s data was significantly downgraded from an initial gain of 1470,000, to a gain of 14,000 jobs, and finally to a loss of 13,000. This marks the first negative monthly payroll print since December 2020. Recent revisions to payroll data have stirred political controversy.
  • On September 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its annual revisions of job gains for the 12 months ending March 2025. Expectations are for job growth to be revised downwards by between 500,000 and up to 950,000 jobs, possibly reflecting a weaker labor market than previously reported.

 

August Payrolls

 

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