03 Dec COTW: Cumulative Monetary Tightening Per Cycle
- Tighter monetary policy has been a contributing factor – and arguably the contributing factor – to the end of every sustained economic expansion in the last half century.
- The degree of tightening necessary to constrain economic activity varies from cycle to cycle. Rates of growth, inflation and the contribution of credit to the then-current cycle all play a role, but the average for the last 50 years is about 400 basis points. With just eight hikes so far this cycle, it would seem we have still have plenty of room for the Fed to hike.
- However, this cycle had something unusual that we haven’t seen in the last half century: quantitative easing. Rather than present the current effective Fed Funds rate of 2.2% as the roughly 210 basis difference between the low of this cycle and the current rate, we have adjusted the degree of tightening to factor in quantitative easing. In many respects, quantitative easing had the same effect on the economy as a deeply negative Fed Funds rate.
The material shown is for informational purposes only. Any opinions expressed are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice. This report may include estimates, projections or other forward-looking statements; however, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. As a practical matter, no entity is able to accurately and consistently predict future market activities. Additionally, please be aware that past performance is not a guide to the future performance of any investment, and that the performance results and historical information provided displayed herein may have been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. Therefore, it should not be inferred that these results are indicative of the future performance of any strategy, index, fund, manager or group of managers. The graphs and tables making up this report have been based on unaudited, third-party data and performance information provided to us by one or more commercial databases. While we believe this information to be reliable, SpringTide Partners bears no responsibility whatsoever for any errors or omissions.
Index benchmarks contained in this report are provided so that performance can be compared with the performance of well-known and widely recognized indices. Index results assume the re-investment of all dividends and interest. The information provided is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security, investment, or portfolio allocation. This presentation is not meant as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s accounts should or would be handled, as appropriate investment decisions depend upon the client’s specific investment objectives.
SpringTide Partners, LLC is a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. For more detail, including information about SpringTide’s business practices and conflicts identified, please refer to SpringTide Partners’ Form ADV Part 2a and Form CRS at: https://www.springtide-partners.com/disclosures