Summary
- For over a decade, the Fed has struggled to hit its internal inflation target despite responding to every episode of economic weakness with increasingly extreme and experimental monetary policy, including 0% interest rates and widescale asset purchases.
- Despite the Fed’s previous challenges to generate higher inflation, we are now at a watershed moment in which inflation could materially increase and affect broader markets. Indeed, inflation has already moved past the Fed’s former target of 2%.
- Inflation will not increase in a straight line. For example, in early 2021, inflation expectations and bond yields appeared to be rising in an unhealthy trajectory, but that movement has since stalled, a potential confirmation that the reflation is slowing.
- Taking a holistic view of government policy, market forces, and public opinion, we believe that inflation clearly poses a higher risk for investors than deflation in the coming years.
DISCLOSURES
The material shown is for informational purposes only. Any opinions expressed are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice. This report may include estimates, projections or other forward-looking statements; however, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. As a practical matter, no entity is able to accurately and consistently predict future market activities. Additionally, please be aware that past performance is not a guide to the future performance of any investment, and that the performance results and historical information provided displayed herein may have been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. Therefore, it should not be inferred that these results are indicative of the future performance of any strategy, index, fund, manager or group of managers. The graphs and tables making up this report have been based on unaudited, third-party data and performance information provided to us by one or more commercial databases. While we believe this information to be reliable, SpringTide Partners bears no responsibility whatsoever for any errors or omissions.
Index benchmarks contained in this report are provided so that performance can be compared with the performance of well-known and widely recognized indices. Index results assume the re-investment of all dividends and interest. The information provided is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security, investment, or portfolio allocation. This presentation is not meant as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s accounts should or would be handled, as appropriate investment decisions depend upon the client’s specific investment objectives.
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