- Global growth first began to slow roughly 18 months ago and emerging market stocks have dropped 13% from the interim high for global stocks in late January 2018.
- Furthermore, emerging market stocks are lower by over 11% since the unofficial start of the Trade War in March 2018. They are also down 7% since the all-time high in U.S. large cap stocks last month.
- We don’t disagree that emerging market stocks generally are riskier than developed market assets and if the world enters a severe recession we would expect them to decline in the short term; however, as the chart below shows, they remain far more attractively priced than U.S. stocks which means they will probably deliver better long-term returns. While emerging markets have trailed their U.S. peers dramatically for most of the last several years, recent performance has been more closely in line, which may suggest a shift in market leadership.
DISCLOSURES
The material shown is for informational purposes only. Any opinions expressed are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice. This report may include estimates, projections or other forward-looking statements; however, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. As a practical matter, no entity is able to accurately and consistently predict future market activities. Additionally, please be aware that past performance is not a guide to the future performance of any investment, and that the performance results and historical information provided displayed herein may have been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. Therefore, it should not be inferred that these results are indicative of the future performance of any strategy, index, fund, manager or group of managers. The graphs and tables making up this report have been based on unaudited, third-party data and performance information provided to us by one or more commercial databases. While we believe this information to be reliable, SpringTide Partners bears no responsibility whatsoever for any errors or omissions.
Index benchmarks contained in this report are provided so that performance can be compared with the performance of well-known and widely recognized indices. Index results assume the re-investment of all dividends and interest. The information provided is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security, investment, or portfolio allocation. This presentation is not meant as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s accounts should or would be handled, as appropriate investment decisions depend upon the client’s specific investment objectives.
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